Although the rate of private buyer registration of new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the UK is reported to have slowed recently, we expect that the pace of electrification of company fleets will continue over the next 12-24 months, and that private buyer registrations will pick up. Drivers include the new Zero Emission Vehicle (Zev) mandate, requiring UK manufacturers to meet new targets for new electric car sales, and which will eventually force all car and van makers to only sell emission-free vehicles by 2035, as well as increased price competition amongst OEMs bringing down the cost of BEVs closer to that of petrol and diesel vehicles, with heavy discounting from the likes of Tesla, new mid-market launches from OEMs like Renault and an ever growing presence of Chinese BEV manufacturers, including BYD and MG, on these shores.
Today there are over a million registered BEVs on the UK’s roads, up from around 100,000 in 2019. More electric vehicles on the road will continue to drive growth in the UK’s charging infrastructure as well as highlighting problems with the existing charging infrastructure, with charge point rollout lagging behind BEV adoption in many areas and residential neighbourhoods without off-street parking in particular lacking adequate public charging access. The problem is especially acute in Wales, Northern Ireland and the Northeast of England, meaning that prospective BEV buyers living in these areas will delay transitioning away from ICE vehicles for longer.
Despite this, the number of public charging points continues to rise as demand and utilisation increases. As the roll out continues, an increasing number of charge point operators (CPOs) have reached or are nearing profitability, which in turn will drive further private sector investment. CPOs with deep pocketed investors will start surveying the competition and, with over 60 CPOs across the UK, we expect to see the beginning of a period of consolidation in 2024; although many CPOs will remain focussed on rolling out the agreements they have inked with landowners as well as tackling DNO connection delays and performance-related issues.
Whilst the UK Government recognised a number of issues with the charging infrastructure in its 2022 Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy and sought to address these with the Public Charge Point Regulations 2023, it remains to be seen how this translates to tangible improvements on the ground in 2024, given other distractions and priorities, not least of them being a general election. Local on-street residential charging must be a top priority for both the public and private sector to prevent a new form of "fuel poverty" from taking root and regional disparities in infrastructure rollout must also narrow. If not, we predict the UK’s pace of electric vehicle adoption will continue to lag mainland Europe where Norway leads the way with BEVs representing 82% of all new car sales in 2023 according to the Norwegian Road Federation.
